RETAIL

Keypoints

  • Investment activity declined
  • Polarisation in tenant demand: inflow at the top, outflow at the bottom
  • Rents stable in prime locations
  • Consumption and retail sales remain subdued

Investment activity declined

In the first quarter of 2026, investment volumes in Dutch retail real estate declined compared to the strong final quarter of 2025. While Q4 was characterised by several larger transactions and a clear increase in volume, such deals were absent in Q1. Total investment volume amounted to approximately € 250 million, significantly lower than at the end of 2025 and below the average quarterly volume of around € 320 million recorded in 2025.

This lower level of visible activity does not indicate a standstill in the market. Transactions mainly took place in the smaller lot size segment, up to approximately € 10 million, including acquisitions in Leiden, Veenendaal, Goes and Uithoorn. Institutional investors remained active in reallocating their portfolios. Liquidity and stable pricing continue to be concentrated in the most liquid segment, while less prime assets are only tradable at higher yield requirements. Prime yields

INVESTMENT VOLUME (€, BILLIONS)

Source: C&W (2026), RCA (2026), edited by Achmea Real Estate

PRIME GROSS INITIAL YIELDS

Source: C&W (2026), edited by Achmea Real Estate

Polarisation in tenant demand: inflow at the top, outflow at the bottom

The occupier market also showed a dual dynamic in the first quarter of 2026. Demand for retail space remained present but was concentrated among a limited number of formats and locations. Larger chains with strong pricing and cost positioning continued to expand their physical footprint. Discount and value-driven retailers such as Action, Normal, Wibra, Scapino and Norah announced new store openings, primarily in mid-sized cities and neighbourhood centres with a strong convenience function. At the same time, new international entrants, including Lager 157 and Scuffers, explicitly targeted highly visible high street locations.

At the lower end of the market, outflow remained evident. Store closures and bankruptcies were primarily observed among smaller independent retailers and more vulnerable concepts in non-food retail and food & beverage. While bankruptcy levels are lower than in 2025 and 2024, pressure remains elevated due to rising costs and more cautious consumer behaviour. As a result, demand for retail space in secondary locations remains limited.

RETAIL BANKRUPTCIES

Source: CBS (2026)

Rents stable in prime locations

Rental performance reflects this divergence. In well-performing locations with high occupancy levels, rents remained broadly stable and lease renewals were typically agreed at existing levels. Outside these locations, rents have either stabilised following previous declines or remain under pressure, driven by lower take-up and structurally declining retail demand. Broad-based rental growth was absent. In Q1, increases were limited to a small number of locations, including modest uplifts in prime rents in G6–9 and G10+ cities. Average vacancy across retail units increased from 6.95% to 7.11% in the first quarter (source: Locatus), with major city centres and neighbourhood shopping centres broadly following this trend.

VACANCY BY TYPE OF RETAIL LOCATION (% OF UNITS)

Source: Locatus (2026), edited by Achmea Real Estate

Consumption and retail sales remain subdued

The consumer backdrop was less supportive in this quarter. Household consumption stagnated at the start of 2026, while consumer confidence declined sharply in March. Retail sales growth also lagged behind inflation. Consumers have become more price-sensitive and are postponing larger discretionary purchases. This translates into tighter cost control among retailers and more cautious expansion strategies, focused on proven formats and concepts. Daily spending categories remain more resilient than discretionary spending, which is clearly reflected in retail space demand.

RETAIL SALES (% Y-O-Y)

Source: CBS (2026), edited by Achmea Real Estate

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

Source: CBS (2026), edited by Achmea Real Estate

Outlook

Consumption is expected to remain under pressure. Lower spending and rising costs continue to weigh on retailer margins, while geopolitical uncertainty and inflation risks limit short-term recovery. This translates directly into the real estate market. The divergence between dominant and secondary retail locations is expected to increase further, with stable rental performance in prime locations and rising vacancy and rental pressure elsewhere.

Prime yields are expected to remain broadly stable. However, upward pressure on capital market interest rates—driven by geopolitical developments—may still translate into higher yields, depending on the duration and impact of these developments. For investors, this reinforces that the investment case for retail real estate is primarily driven by predictable cash flows in well-positioned locations. The scope for rental growth remains limited, while risk premiums outside the core are expected to increase further.

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