FOCUS
FROM CONSUMER FLOWS TO CASH FLOWS
THE WIDENING GAP BETWEEN RESILIENT AND WEAKER RETAIL LOCATIONS
Introduction
The value of retail real estate is ultimately determined by the consumer. Wherever consumers spend their money, demand for retail space — and therefore value — is created. At the same time, the gap between strong and weak retail locations continues to widen. This divide is visible not only between cities, but also within cities themselves.
The Randstad Retail Flow Survey 2025 provides insight into how consumer spending is shifting across the retail landscape. These changing consumer flows form the foundation of how retail areas perform and ultimately translate into cash flows. Understanding where consumer spending is moving is therefore essential in determining where retail real estate will remain future-proof.
Achmea Real Estate has published a whitepaper on this topic, which can be downloaded via www.achmearealestate.nl. In this Focus section, we highlight the key findings.
Context and trends: a changing retail landscape
The retail market is undergoing a structural transformation. Population growth no longer translates into more stores or additional retail space. In the Randstad region, the number of inhabitants increased (+3.7%), while the number of stores (-8%) and the total retail floor area (-3%) both declined. The market is therefore shifting from expansion towards redistribution and more efficient use of space.
This development is further reinforced by the growth of online retail, which is placing increasing pressure on mid-sized and less distinctive retail locations in particular. At the same time, purchasing power is under pressure as income growth lags behind inflation. Consumers are therefore making more conscious choices, with a stronger focus on price, convenience and proximity.
The role of physical retail is also changing. Stores are becoming less purely transactional and increasingly form part of a broader consumer experience, in which food & beverage, leisure and services play a larger role. At the same time, scale is increasing: the number of stores is declining, while average store size continues to grow.
Notably, this contraction is not resulting in structurally higher vacancy rates. Through transformation and mixed-use redevelopment, vacancy remains manageable. The key trend is that consumer spending is concentrating in a smaller number of strong locations. It is not the number of stores, but the attractiveness of a location that determines where consumer flows move — and where value is created.
City Centres: increasing consumer flows towards the G4 reinforce the retail hierarchy
City centres remain the primary locations where consumer flows converge. Following the pandemic period, during which local shopping areas temporarily benefited, consumer spending is once again concentrating in larger and more distinctive city centres.
Although the number of stores is also declining in these locations, this does not imply a weakening position for city centres. On the contrary, the market share of the largest city centres has actually increased. The four largest Dutch cities (G4) now account for 21% of recreational retail spending in the Randstad region, largely at the expense of mid-sized and smaller centres.
City centres are also increasingly evolving into destination areas. Retail is no longer the sole function, but part of a broader mix that includes food & beverage, culture and leisure. This further strengthens the attractiveness of the strongest cities.
At the same time, differentiation within the segment is increasing. Large and distinctive city centres, as well as several strong regional centres, continue to strengthen their position. Mid-sized centres without a clear profile, by contrast, are losing ground — particularly when located near larger cities. The result is a more polarised retail landscape, in which consumer spending is increasingly concentrated in a limited number of dominant locations.
DEVELOPMENT OF MARKET SHARE – ‘RECREATIONAL’ RETAIL Randstad, 2021-2025, city centres
Source: KSO2025, figure derived by Achmea Real Estate
District and neighbourhood centres: stable consumer flows require scale and a strong profile
District and neighbourhood shopping centres fulfil a different role within the retail landscape. Whereas city centres are driven by experience and scale, these centres focus primarily on daily necessities and proximity.
During the pandemic period, these centres benefited from their local function. That effect has now partly normalised, but their position within the convenience retail segment remains strong. Supermarkets and other daily amenities generate stable and frequent footfall, forming the foundation of these centres’ performance.
At the same time, it is clear that not every neighbourhood centre offers the same level of stability. Centres with sufficient scale, a clear anchor function and a well-balanced tenant mix are able to maintain their position. Smaller or fragmented centres without strong anchors, by contrast, are losing consumer spending to competing retail locations. Non-convenience retail is also under pressure in these areas.
In addition, the quality of the real estate itself plays an important role. Outdated centres are losing attractiveness and require investment to remain relevant. As a result, a distinction is also emerging within this category between strong and vulnerable locations.
DEVELOPMENT OF MARKET SHARE – ‘CONVENIENCE’ RETAIL Randstad, 2021-2025, city centres
Source: KSO2025, figure derived by Achmea Real Estate
From consumer flows to cash flows: implications for investors
The concentration of consumer flows in a limited number of locations has direct implications for the performance of retail real estate. Locations that succeed in structurally attracting visitors and consumer spending tend to generate more stable income streams and experience lower vacancy levels.
In city centres, this primarily applies to the largest and most distinctive destinations, which combine scale, accessibility and experience. In district and neighbourhood centres, strength lies in proximity, shopping frequency and the presence of strong convenience anchors.
At the same time, locations without a clear positioning are coming under increasing pressure. The underlying trend of concentration, which was temporarily interrupted during the pandemic, has resumed. As a result, the gap between strong and weak locations is becoming more visible and is increasingly reflected in the quality and stability of cash flows.
Selective investing in a polarised retail landscape
PORTFOLIO STRATEGY ACHMEA DUTCH RETAIL PROPERTY FUND
Developments in consumer flows are also reflected in portfolio performance. Within the recreational retail segment, visitors and consumer spending are increasingly concentrating in the largest city centres, where scale, accessibility and a strong functional mix reinforce overall attractiveness.
Data from the MSCI retail benchmark shows that demand for retail space in these locations remains strong. Vacancy rates in the G4 cities have fallen to below 2%, while other major cities are also showing clear improvement. In district and neighbourhood centres, vacancy levels remain stable at a low level.
Returns in the strongest urban locations also remain positive, despite the temporary correction in 2023 caused by rising interest rates. The performance of the Achmea Dutch Retail Property Fund demonstrates that targeted allocation towards dominant locations, combined with active asset management, can lead to outperformance relative to the benchmark.
The current portfolio is therefore the result of a strategy focused on quality, selectivity and continuous optimisation
DEVELOPMENT OF FINANCIAL VACANCY ‘comparison’ and ‘convenience’ MSCI-benchmark
Source: MSCI (2026), edited by Achmea Real Estate
DEVELOPMENT TOTAL RETURN 'comparison' and 'convenience' MSCI-benchmark and ADRPF
Source: MSCI (2026), edited by Achmea Real Estate
Three key lessons for retail real estate investors
The insights from the Retail Flow Survey and their translation into portfolio performance lead to several clear lessons for retail real estate investors. Three insights stand out in particular:
1. Consumer flows determine where cash flows are generated
The retail market is no longer expanding in size, but is increasingly concentrating in a limited number of strong locations. The largest city centres and well-performing district and neighbourhood centres are consistently able to attract consumer flows. This concentration translates into stronger and more stable demand for retail space, lower vacancy levels and ultimately forms the foundation for resilient and future-proof cash flows.
2. Selecting strong city centres alone is not enough: the differentiator lies in the quality of the micro-location
Even within strong segments, differences are increasing. In city centres, consumer flows are shifting towards specific streets and clusters, while in district and neighbourhood centres, scale, tenant mix and real estate quality are becoming decisive factors. As a result, the extent to which consumer flows are effectively converted into cash flows is increasingly determined at the micro level.
3. Portfolio optimisation is a continous process
The dynamics within retail require active and ongoing asset management. The ability to make timely adjustments — through investment, repositioning or divestment — largely determines the resilience of the portfolio and long-term returns.
These three lessons underline that successful retail investments are ultimately not only about the right allocation strategy, but above all about the ability to continuously translate consumer flows into sustainable cash flows.
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