The world has entered a phase in which uncertainty has become structural rather than temporary. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, combined with the repositioning of the United States under Trump, continue to create a volatile and unpredictable macroeconomic environment. These developments directly affect inflation expectations and interest rate volatility in the capital markets. What was once considered cyclical noise has now become a permanent factor in investment decision-making.

Within this context, the Dutch real estate market — particularly residential, healthcare real estate and retail — remains relatively resilient. Underlying demand in these segments is strong and largely driven by demographic trends, although it is gradually being confronted with changing financing conditions and risk premiums. In 2025, the portfolios managed by Achmea Real Estate delivered top-tier results, achieving double-digit returns across the board. Real estate’s strong inflation-hedging characteristics contributed to this performance. At the same time, real estate is not a cumulative game: every year starts again at zero. In a market characterised by uncertainty, disciplined acquisitions based on data-driven market analysis and active cash flow optimisation remain the key drivers of value creation.

The challenge for the coming period does not lie in predicting market direction, but in consistently executing with discipline under changing conditions. This means remaining selective in acquisitions, with a clear focus on tenant quality, the sustainability of cash flows and realistic exit assumptions. It also means actively steering operational optimisation within portfolios, as returns are increasingly driven by management and execution rather than yield compression.

In an environment where uncertainty remains the norm, value creation is not about timing the market, but about consistency in approach. In precisely this context, the strength lies in maintaining discipline in acquisitions, further strengthening cash flows and allocating capital to segments supported by structural demand and long-term stability.

In this update, we take a closer look at the various real estate segments and the broader economic environment. This edition places retail in the spotlight. In the Focus section, we specifically address the importance of structural demand and consumer behaviour for investments in the retail real estate market.

Peter Koppers, Director Investment Management