RESIDENTIAL

Despite the strong interest, initial yields for residential investments remained stable in Q4. Because risk-free interest rates stayed roughly unchanged around 3%, there is little room for further yield compression. The spread between prime residential yields and risk-free rates has hovered around 150 basis points for four consecutive quarters, well below the 10-year average of 280 basis points. Yields are therefore expected to remain stable in the coming period. However, geopolitical uncertainty has increased significantly in recent months. This could lead to volatility in risk-free rates and potentially put upward pressure on yields.

House prices are expected to have risen slightly by 0.8% in Q4; on an annual basis, the increase reached 6.5% (source: Oxford Economics/Kadaster). Prices continue to grow, but the pace is slowing. Earlier in 2025, quarterly price increases were still 1.8%. Because house prices have risen sharply in recent years, upward potential seems more limited. Additionally, wage growth is slowing, which reduces the ability of potential buyers to increase their bids. NVM figures, less precise but more current than Kadaster data, show a similar slowdown. Sale prices recorded by NVM agents rose by 3.9% year on year. The average transaction price exceeded €500,000 for the first time. There were 47,600 transactions in total, up 15% from Q3 and 11% from Q4 2024.

Even though market tightness is easing slightly—partly due to rental homes being sold off—the tightness indicator remains very low at 1.9. The gradual slowdown in price increases suggests a slightly more relaxed market sentiment compared to previous years, but structural challenges around affordability and housing shortages persist. The Eigen Huis Market Indicator, which reflects consumer confidence in the housing market, remains just below neutral. In December it reached 96 points—an improvement from recent months but slightly below the 99 reported in December 2024 (100 = neutral on a scale of 0 to 200).