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In the second quarter of 2025, the Dutch retail sector grew moderately, mainly due to higher wages and slight price increases. Although the recovery continues, the situation remains mixed due to sectoral differences and slightly declining sales volumes. Agility therefore remains important, partly due to competition from foreign webshops and changing consumer preferences.

In June 2025, 26 retail companies went bankrupt, eight fewer than in May but slightly more than in June 2024. Household goods shops and clothing and footwear shops particularly struggled, while supermarkets and department stores remained unaffected. The most notable bankruptcy was that of home furnishing brand Riviera Maison, which may make a relaunch after years of losses thanks to interest from several parties.

Households increased their spending by 1.1 per cent in April compared to a year earlier, maintaining consumption growth for 11 consecutive months. In May, spending on durable goods increased by 0.7 per cent, while spending on food and beverages fell slightly.Purchasing power trends remain positive: at the beginning of 2025, real disposable income was 2.2 per cent higher than a year earlier, mainly due to higher collective wages and rising social benefits. This supports stable consumption growth.

Retail sales grew 2.2 per cent in May, despite a slight 0.4 per cent drop in sales volume. Speciality shops outperformed supermarkets, and within the non-food sector, sales grew by 2.5 per cent. Drugstores, DIY shops, leisure shops and home furnishing shops in particular posted profits, while clothing, footwear and electronics shops lost sales. Online sales rose 4.7 per cent in May, driven mainly by consumer electronics (+ 7.9 per cent) and food and drugstore goods (+ 11.3 per cent). However, online sales of clothing and fashion items continued to decline compared to last year. Finally, consumer confidence remained stable at minus 36 in June. Willingness to spend did not change, but the outlook on the economic situation for the coming year improved slightly.

The Dutch retail real estate market is showing a clear recovery in 2025, with a sharply increased investment volume. In the second quarter, investments amounted to around EUR 469 million, a significant increase compared to the same period last year, when the volume was still around EUR 62 million (source: C&W). This growth is largely attributable to some large transactions, including Wereldhave's purchase of Stadshart Zoetermeer for €150 million and the sale of Winkelcentrum Winkelhof in Leiderdorp to Urban Interest for €56 million. Remarkably, unlike in the first quarter, this quarter saw more activity among institutional investors, especially in the market for district and borough centres.

For the whole of 2025, the total investment volume in the retail real estate market is expected to reach around EUR 1.3 billion, suggesting a structural recovery of the sector after years of restraint (source: JLL). Besides the usual smaller transactions, larger deals above EUR 20 million are now increasingly visible, creating more dynamism between buyers and sellers.

Despite economic challenges such as persistent inflation and moderate growth, demand for retail property remains robust. Improved rents and higher occupancy rates are boosting investor confidence, while banks are again more willing to provide financing. On average, about half of the purchase price is financed by banks, further supporting the market's recovery.

The investor landscape is noticeably shifting: real estate funds now account for the majority of investment volume, surpassing private investors. This indicates a sustainable recovery and growing vitality in the Dutch retail real estate market.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions and unpredictable trade policies—especially from the United States—continue to create uncertainty. This leads to investor caution and postponement of investment decisions, which are still expected to materialise later this year. Additionally, the European Central Bank’s uncertain interest rate policy increases the demand for stability. Nevertheless, market research by NVM Business shows that in Q2 2025 a segment of private investors, particularly fiscal box 3 investors, intend to reinvest proceeds from sold homes into commercial real estate. Long-term stability of returns remains a key motivator. Furthermore, previous write-downs have made retail real estate more attractive, improving the risk-return balance. Prime shopping streets, in particular, have seen initial yields stabilise. This explains why, despite the uncertainties, the willingness to invest in retail real estate remains intact.