RETAIL

Keypoints

  • The retail sector is recovering, driven by increased spending and footfall, yet continues to face pressure from online competition and low margins
  • Retail real estate sees cautious recovery driven by urban demand for smaller units and quick re-letting of vacated premises
  • Rising economic and geopolitical uncertainty delays large-scale investments, with private investors remaining most active

Recovery fuelled by spending power, but competitive pressure persists

In the first quarter of 2025, the Dutch retail sector presented a mixed picture. On the one hand, retailers benefited from rising purchasing power, increased spending, and more store visits. On the other, the sector remains under pressure due to bankruptcies, tight margins, and mounting competition from foreign online retailers. Despite high-profile bankruptcies such as Casa and Gerry Weber, the number of retail bankruptcies fell sharply. In March, just 17 retailers went bankrupt – a significant drop from 31 in February. This brings the total number of bankruptcies in Q1 to 69, the lowest level since 2022 (source: CBS). Meanwhile, household purchasing power increased thanks to higher wages and benefits. Real disposable income in 2024 was 3 percent higher than the previous year. With wage growth at 5.5 percent and inflation at 3.7 percent, disposable income continues to rise (source: CBS).

This increased spending power translated into higher consumption. In February, households spent 2.1 percent more than a year earlier, particularly on durable goods (+1.5 percent) and food (+0.7 percent). It was the eighth consecutive month of rising household spending (source: CBS). While consumer confidence remains low, it has so far had little impact on revenue (source: CBS). Retail sales in February rose by 1.6 percent, despite a 0.9 percent drop in sales volume (source: CBS). Growth in the food sector was mainly price-driven, with specialist shops outperforming supermarkets.

In the non-food segment, drugstores and leisure shops saw strong growth, while electronics and home furnishing stores recorded lower turnover. Brick-and-mortar clothing shops grew, while online clothing sales declined. Online spending also rose: Dutch consumers spent €36 billion online in 2024 – up 5 percent year-on-year (source: Thuiswinkel Markt Monitor / NielsenIQ GfK). Telecom products and services such as insurance contributed strongly to this growth. At the same time, foreign online platforms, especially from China, gained market share. Dutch shoppers spent €430 million on items like clothing and tools from these retailers (source: Thuiswinkel Markt Monitor). Lastly, footfall in shopping streets rose by 6 percent compared to early 2024, supported by favourable weather (source: Bureau RMC). All in all, the sector is showing signs of recovery, but adaptability remains key in a shifting retail real estate landscape.

RETAIL SALES DEVELOPMENT (% CHANGE, YEAR-ON-YEAR)

Source: CBS (2025), edited by Achmea Real Estate

Retailers opt for smaller units, but vacant spaces are filled quickly

In Q1 2025, the Dutch retail real estate market continued to show signs of cautious recovery. Retailers remain hesitant to lease or purchase larger retail spaces (over 100 m²), favouring smaller units, often for services such as hairdressers, nail salons, or beauty salons. Overall take-up of retail space in Q1 remained roughly on par with the same period last year, but was 13 percent lower than in the previous quarter. The segment of larger spaces (from 1,000 m²) saw the sharpest decline, with take-up nearly halved.

On a positive note, many retail units vacated due to bankruptcies—such as those from Blokker—have quickly been re-let. Chains such as Van Haren, Normal, TerStal, and Wibra have opened new stores, many of them in former Blokker locations. The new ‘Blokker’ has also reopened shops in several cities (source: NVM).

Regional differences remain significant. In the 12 largest retail cities, take-up dropped by 22 percent compared to Q1 2024, reducing their national share from 33 percent to 26 percent. Only Groningen and Haarlem recorded growth. Amsterdam remained the leader with 7,000 m², followed by Rotterdam (5,600 m²) and Groningen (5,000 m²). For the first time in two years, total retail supply declined, falling 3 percent to 1.26 million m². The number of units also fell, from 4,225 to 4,108. The largest contraction was in the segment above 1,000 m² (–65,000 m²). Only Rotterdam (plus 11 percent) and The Hague (plus 32 percent) saw an increase in supply (source: NVM/brainbay).

Price trends in the retail market are currently mixed. Ongoing uncertainty is causing many tenants to postpone decisions, putting pressure on rents—especially in less desirable locations. These units are increasingly being taken up by start-ups or service providers in areas such as sport and culture. Prime retail areas are showing modest rental increases, although rents remain significantly lower than several years ago (source: NVM/brainbay).

Vacancy in high street retail locations has increased slightly, with an average rise of around 15 basis points compared to the previous quarter. In contrast, vacancy rates in shopping centres have remained relatively stable. While market dynamics differ by region and segment, recent developments suggest a stabilisation in the retail real estate market. Entrepreneurs remain cautious, but the quick uptake of vacant space and the modest drop in supply point to a market in recovery.

BANKRUPTCIES IN RETAIL

Source: CBS (2025), edited by Achmea Real Estate

DEVELOPMENT VACANCY (%) BY TYPE OF SHOPPING AREA

Source: Locatus (2025), edited by Achmea Real Estate

Renewed investor interest, with sharper focus

So far in 2025, investor uncertainty has increased, partly due to escalating trade tensions and the European Central Bank’s ongoing monetary policy. This policy may potentially lead to interest rate cuts later this year. While investors remain active, they are considerably more selective, with greater emphasis on risk, sustainability, and location. Moreover, there is ample capital available, particularly among private investors. When buyers and sellers are able to align, transactions tend to close more swiftly (source: NVM).

A clear shift is also visible among smaller investors, who are redirecting their focus from residential property (sell-offs) to commercial real estate (source: NVM). Expectations for rental growth remain positive, especially for energy-efficient property types such as shops in high-footfall retail streets. Falling interest rates and anticipated value appreciation are reinforcing this confidence. As a result, more momentum could emerge in the investment market later this year, especially if the expected rate cuts are implemented.

In addition, the risk premium of retail real estate compared to the risk-free rate in the investment market has declined. This is mainly due to geopolitical uncertainty and stimulus measures from governments including Germany, which have driven up the risk-free rate. Nevertheless, initial yields for retail real estate have generally remained stable, with slight increases outside Amsterdam’s prime retail areas. This is due to modest rent growth and stable capital values in cities such as Rotterdam and The Hague (source: C&W).

In terms of investment volume in the retail sector, around €280 million was invested in Q1 2025 (source: RCA). This represents a decline compared to the same quarter in 2024, when volume reached €400 million. During this period, private and international investors were especially active. The most notable transaction was Maven Real Estate’s acquisition of the Leidsche Rijn shopping centre.

INVESTMENT VOLUME RETAIL (€, BILLIONS)

Source: RCA (2025), edited by Achmea Real Estate

PRIME YIELDS RETAIL PER CLUSTERING OF CITIES

Source: Cushman & Wakefield (2025), edited by Achmea Real Estate

Outlook

Blokker’s bankruptcies have undeniably led to vacant spaces on high streets, but the retail market has shown a strong ability to adapt. Property owners report that demand for quality retail space remains strong. The swift reoccupation of former Blokker stores illustrates this trend. This success is partly due to the prime locations of these properties, the flexibility within the retail sector, and the willingness of new tenants to take over the vacant spaces. As a result, the vacancies caused by the bankruptcy appear to be temporary.

Several key trends are expected to shape the retail sector in 2025. First, retail areas are increasingly transforming into multifunctional destinations. Combining functions such as shopping, living, working, and recreation makes these locations more attractive and versatile. Another significant development is the balance between online and physical shopping. Although online retail continues to grow, its growth rate seems to be slowing down. This presents opportunities for physical stores to reposition themselves and offer added value that cannot be replicated online.

Finally, the second-hand clothing market continues to grow strongly, driven by younger generations and sustainability trends. The market not only offers consumers cost savings but also taps into the growing interest in reuse and the circular economy. With the increasing focus on environmental impact, more and more consumers are choosing second-hand clothing as an alternative to new items. These trends are expected to drive the global second-hand clothing market to reach $367 billion by 2029 (source: Rabobank).

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