RETAIL
Keypoints
- Rising real wages and government measures boost purchasing power and support economic growth
- The non-food sector is showing growth, while the food sector and the shift to online shopping are stabilising
- Vacant retail properties are being quickly repurposed after a series of bankruptcies.
- High investment volumes remain elusive for now, but the fundamentals of the user market remain strong
Increasing purchasing power drives the retail sector
Household consumption will be a significant driver of economic growth in 2025. Although wage increases from 2024 are levelling off, real wages continue to rise, contributing to a further recovery in purchasing power. Government measures, such as increased housing benefits, higher child- related budgets, and tax adjustments, are supporting this trend.
Consumer confidence remained cautious in 2024, with an index of -26 in December 2024, slightly lower than the -21 recorded at the end of the third quarter. However, consumers showed some positivity as large purchases were viewed less negatively. In November 2024, households spent 0.8 per cent more than a year earlier, mainly due to a 2.3 per cent increase in the purchase of durable goods such as electrical appliances and cars. Conversely, spending on food and beverages saw a slight decline of 0.9 per cent (source: CBS).
The retail sector recorded revenue growth of 2.2 per cent in November 2024 compared to 2023. The non-food sector performed particularly well, with a growth of 4.4 per cent, driven by strong results in recreational goods, consumer electronics, and DIY products. However, the food sector experienced a 2 per cent decline in revenue, with sales volume dropping by 5.9 per cent. Online revenue rose by 1.8 per cent, mainly driven by pure online players. Webshops that offer internet sales as a secondary activity performed less well, with a decline of 1.5 per cent. The clothing and fashion sector saw a revenue decrease of 4.4 per cent (source: CBS).
Despite an 8 per cent increase in retail bankruptcies in 2024, the outlook for 2025 is positive. ING forecasts a 4 per cent revenue growth in the non-food retail sector, with strong performances expected in personal care products, home goods, and DIY products. Rising real wages and targeted government measures continue to support purchasing power and consumption, creating optimism for 2025.
RETAIL SALES DEVELOPMENT (% CHANGE, YEAR-ON-YEAR)
Source: CBS (2025), edited by Achmea Real Estate
DEVELOPMENT OF ONLINE RETAIL SALES (% CHANGE, YEAR-ON-YEAR)
Source: CBS (2025), edited by Achmea Real Estate
Bankruptcies cause only short-term vacancies
The Dutch retail sector experienced a turbulent year in 2024, with both challenges and positive developments. Major chains such as Bristol, Esprit, The Body Shop, and Blokker declared bankruptcy, resulting in increased vacancies on high streets. By the end of 2024, 6.7 per cent of retail properties were vacant, up from 6.2 per cent at the beginning of the year (source: Locatus). This equates to nearly 900 additional vacant properties, while the total number of active retail locations decreased by over 3,000. Many of these vacant properties have since been repurposed, primarily as residen t ial spaces.
Despite these challenges, there were positive developments. Foot traffic on high streets rebounded significantly in the spring and autumn of 2024. Chains like Wibra, along with online players such as Mr Marvis and My Jewellery, expanded their activities. However, the total active retail floor space continued to decline. Having previously remained stable at around 27.5 million square metres, it has now fallen below 27 million. Notably, vacant properties are on average smaller; only 5.8 per cent of retail floor space is vacant, compared to 6.7 per cent of properties.
The shift from physical stores to online retail stabilised in 2024. While 81 per cent of Dutch consumers made online purchases, the revenue growth of physical stores in November 2024 slightly outpaced that of online shops. This suggests that the share of online retail in total retail revenue is no longer increasing. The decline in the number of retailers is now primarily attributed to an ageing population of entrepreneurs and rising costs for labour, energy, and goods.
In other shopping areas, including large city centres, vacancies did increase despite a recovery in visitor numbers. The outlook for 2025 remains mixed. Macro-economic uncertainties, such as rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions, continue to pose risks. However, there are positive signs: the rate of increasing vacancies appeared to slow in the final months of 2024, and in 2025, vacancies are expected to stabilise or even slightly decline. The recovery in visitor numbers and a slowdown in rising costs contribute to a more optimistic outlook.
DEVELOPMENT VACANCY BY TYPE OF SHOPPING AREA
Source: Locatus (2025), edited by Achmea Real Estate
Large investment volumes remain absent despite renewed interest
The current investment market in the retail sector is characterised by specific demand for high street locations. This demand primarily comes from private investors, both domestic and international, while institutional investors are primarily focused on the convenience segment. Although transfer taxes pose a barrier to liquidity, several factors enhance the attractiveness of the Dutch market, including a stable economy, a strong consumer position, and declining interest rates. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the retail sector's investment volume was estimated at approximately €350 million, a decline from €590 million in the same quarter of 2023. For the full year 2024, the total investment volume reached around €1 billion, comparable to the level at the end of 2023 (source: RCA).
Over the past year, gross initial yields for retail properties have remained largely stable or slightly increased. Due to a mismatch between supply and demand, where buyer offers were often too low for sellers, some high street locations experienced a slight correction in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, demand for convenience real estate in prime locations remains strong. A similar trend was observed in the occupier market, where prime market rents generally remained stable, with some growth in the busiest city centres.
PRIME YIELDS RETAIL PER CLUSTERING OF CITIES
Source: Cushman & Wakefield (2025), edited by Achmea Real Estate
PRIME RENTS RETAIL PER CLUSTERING OF CITIES (2010 = 100)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield (2025), edited by Achmea Real Estate
Outlook
The bankruptcy of Blokker has undeniably led to vacancies on high streets, but the retail market has demonstrated its ability to adapt. Landlords report that demand for quality retail locations remains strong. The swift reoccupation of former Blokker properties illustrates this trend. This success is partly due to the attractive locations of the properties, the flexibility within the retail sector, and the willingness of new tenants to take over the vacated spaces. As a result, the vacancies caused by the bankruptcy appear to be temporary.
Several key trends are expected to shape the retail sector in 2025. Firstly, shopping areas are increasingly transforming into multifunctional destinations. Combining functions such as shopping, living, working, and leisure makes these locations more attractive and versatile. In addition, sustainability is playing an increasingly significant role. Interest in green property solutions and environmentally friendly retail concepts is growing, driven by societal pressure and changing consumer demands.
Another important development is the balance between online and physical shopping. While online retail continues to grow, the pace of growth appears to be slowing. This provides opportunities for physical stores to reposition themselves and offer added value that cannot be replicated online. At the same time, declining cost increases and a more stabilised market are expected to further reduce or at least stabilise vacancies on high streets.
Share this page