RETAIL

Keypoints

  • Employees demand higher wages due to increased spending
  • Dynamics in the retail market
  • The transaction volume remains subdued, but interest is rising
  • The purchasing power will improve during 2024

Employees demand higher wages due to increased spending

Retail sales grew by 5.9 percent on a year-on-year basis in August. The growth was visible in all non-food categories, except for recreational items and consumer electronics. Online sales only increased for food items and declined for all other sectors, including clothing and fashion items. The growth was driven by higher prices, as the volume actually decreased during the same period. However, this decline was less pronounced than in previous months. Prices now appear to be stabilizing. The consumer prices rose 0.2 percent, largely due to lower energy prices and a change in the measurement method by the CBS (Central Bureau of Statistics). Food prices were still 9.3 percent higher than a year ago. As a result of the higher prices, consumer spending has also increased, leading to employees demanding higher wages. In this tight labor market. employers are generally accommodating this demand, The wage growth in collective labor agreements (Cao) has not been this substantial in years. This will stimulate purchasing power in the medium to long term. In the annual budget presented by the caretakes government in September, issues of social security and broad prosperity were central topics. This will be an important theme for the newly formed government after the elections.

Although it hasn't yet led to an increase in consumer confidence, it hasn't declined significantly either. The consumer outlook is slowly but steadily improving.

RETAIL SALES; VALUE VS VOLUME (2015 = 100)

Source: CBS (2023), edited by Achmea Real Estate

WAGE GROWTH AND CONSUMER SPENDING

Source: CBS (2023), edited by Achmea Real Estate

Dynamics in the retail market

The vacancy rate remained stable at 6 percent, but this doesn't reflect the dynamics in the user market. Many retailers are cooping with staff shortages, high operating costs, and financial burdens. Additionally, the tax authorities sent reminders to retailers with tax debts, increasing the pressure to pay. It's therefore no surprise that many retailers facing difficulties ended up in even deeper trouble. Retailers such as the discount store Big Bazar, the shoe store chain Shoeby, and the electronics and appliance chain BCC are recent examples. Big Bazar and Shoeby initiated a so-called 'Whoa procedure' (Act on Confirmation of Private Restructuring Plans). This process includes a cooling-off period to prevent bankruptcy by reaching agreements with creditors, provided the company can demonstrate its future viability. This can compel resistant financiers to agree and prevent a relatively small creditor from unilaterally pushing for bankruptcy. Despite the increasing number of bankruptcies, there was also demand for retail space, especially from new and expanding retailers. Some examples include the new men's fashion brand No Label, which expanded to seven locations this year and is seeking new ones; the accessory brand My Jewellery, founded in 2011, which now has 24 locations and continues to grow; and several brand stores opening new stores. Vacancy rates in prime locations within shopping cities have decreased, but there is enough space to accommodate the rising demand. As a result of economic developments, with a few exceptions, top rental levels have slightly decreased.

VACANCY: UNITS AND SPACE

Source: Locatus (2023), edited by Achmea Real Estate

PRIME RENTS (Q3 2023 VS Q3 2022)

Source: C&W (2023), edited by Achmea Real Estate

The transaction volume remains subdued, but demand is picking up

In the investment market, the transaction volume for retail real estate amounted to 170.3 million euros in the third quarter. This volume was higher than in previous quarters but still relatively low from a historical perspective. The low volume is mainly a consequence from the uncertain economic outlook and increased interest rates. Retail real estate is performing reasonably well and there is limited debt applied in the sector. As a result forced sales are rare and equity investors sometimes find good investment opportunities. Due to rising interest rates, initial yields have increased, although less strong compared to other sectors. Some transactions indicate that investors are willing to pay competitive initial yields for convenience centers that are in line with their strategy. For example, the convenience center Nieuw-Sloten in Amsterdam was sold with a gross initial yield of 5.4 percent, and the convenience center Heusdenhout in Breda at 5.7 percent.

RETAIL INVESTMENT VOLUME BY QUARTER (X € BILLION)

Source: RCA (2023), edited by Achmea Real Estate

PRIME INITIAL YIELDS (Q3 2023 VS. Q3 2022)

Source: C&W (2023), edited by Achmea Real Estate

Outlook

The retail market will normalize in the coming quarters. This means that the volatility in the market, which was caused by abnormal market circumstances, is largely behind us. As a result, the sector will start to perform in line with economic growth. In the short term, the growth is under pressure, but by 2024, there will be room for growth. This is primarily driven by strong wage growth and price stabilization. This will improve purchasing power and boost spending. It will not only help retailers who have weathered this period to catch some breath, but also will allow expanding retailers to grow. Larger cities will recover more quickly as they attract more consumers than smaller cities. Retailers often establish new stores first in larger cities, giving a positive boost to shopping areas. It's a good reason for consumers to visit these cities, and larger cities also benefit from a higher number of tourists, which is increasing at this moment. However, the effect on rent growth will be limited. Rental levels have been declining, and it seems that they have reached the bottom. Convenience centers will continue to perform steadily in the coming period, as they primarily provide the daily necessities. In the short term, the outlook is stable.

Share this page