The Spring Memorandum 2025 contains plans with significant impact on the Dutch real estate market, with direct consequences for both institutional and private investors. The most notable—and unexpected—measure is the proposed freeze on rents in the social housing sector for 2025 and 2026. While this seems advantageous for tenants in the short term, it may severely limit the investment capacity of housing corporations. As a result, the risk grows that necessary new construction projects could be delayed or even halted.

The Dutch association of housing corporations, Aedes, is currently preparing legal action in response to the rent freeze. According to the association, the measure breaches previously established agreements made during the National Performance Agreements, which set targets for the number of homes corporations are expected to deliver in the coming years. Due to lost rental income, housing associations may be forced to invest €49 billion less (Source: Ortec Finance). As a consequence, previously stated ambitions are at risk, and long-term investment certainty is being undermined.

The government also has ambitious plans for the private rental sector. For instance, the government intends to reduce the number of WWS (Dutch housing valuation) points required to maintain a property within the private rental sector. This would result in fewer homes being subject to regulated mid-market rents. At the same time, the WOZ (property value) will carry more weight in the housing valuation system, giving landlords more flexibility to return to the private sector when a property changes hands.

The goal is to keep the rental segment attractive to investors. However, this conflicts with the Housing Strengthening Act, which requires two-thirds of all new construction to be in the affordable segment. With a lower mid-market rent threshold—such as 170 WWS points—only a narrow, financially unattractive margin remains. Clarity before parliamentary debate is therefore crucial. Meanwhile, the world around us remains turbulent. Donald Trump is returning to the global stage with strong rhetoric on new trade tariffs, leading to uncertainty in the financial markets. In this turbulent environment, Dutch core real estate still offers attractive opportunities for long-term investors, thanks to its stable economic foundation.

However, to fully capitalize on this potential, predictable and consistent policy is essential. Uncertainty—whether stemming from domestic or international policy—impedes investment decisions. In this Investment Update, we will explore in the "Focus" section why, despite (geo)political disruptions, the outlook for Dutch real estate remains promising.

Peter Koppers, Director Investment Management